Tournament Hand Analysis #1

A good friend of mine from Australia has a site called Tilted Behaviour and he recently posted a few hands from his latest tournament Down Under. It’d be most beneficial if you read his entire summary on his site and then went on with the analysis I’ll provide here. He sets the stage for each hand nicely and also provides some background information that isn’t included here. I took some excerpts from what he wrote and included them as a little preface to each hand I break down.

The tournament was part of the Joe Hachem Deep Stack Series held at Crown Casino in Australia. Players began with 10,000 chips and the blinds at 50-100. Levels increased every 25 minutes.

Q7o Hand:

“The table began fairly limp happy and I didn’t pick up my first hand until I was dealt Qh 7c in the small blind and completed for 50 more following a few limpers. The flop fell down 7d 7s 5s and I led out for 250 and got one caller on the button. The turn landed the Kd and I made it 550 to go with the button player again making the call to see me check the fairly insignificant Jc on the river prompting a 1,100-chip bet which I quickly called. When showed the losing 6s 6c to see me chip up to 12,175 I thought about the hand and how I played the river badly, not putting in a check-raise; even though it most likely would have yielded nothing.”

I think a complete from the SB with Q7o is marginal as your hand won’t flop too good most of the time, but I understand your a solid player so you can handle taking a shot completing here getting a good price with all the limpers. I like the flop line and the turn line as well. I also really like the river line despite your claim to having possibly misplayed it.

The first thing that pops out is the flush draw on board. Seeing as your opponent has been calling you down the entire way, I’d include flush draws in his range, 86 and 64 for open-ended straight draws, 22-99, and then combinations of 7s (A7, 76, 87, 97, etc) that he would limp the button with after a few limpers. That said, I think the river here is a common way-ahead/way-behind spot. You’re either crushing his range after the flush doesn’t get there or his seven might have you beat. He also might be slow playing fives full, but that’s a really tiny part of his range here I believe simply because of the board.

A river check does a few things successfully that I really like. First, it could induce a bluff from hands like busted flush draws and straight draws, or even from flush-draw hands that could have paired the turn or river (KTss, QJss, etc.). I’m also not going to be check raising here on the end because I think that it’s going to serve little purpose. You have to ask yourself: What hands will my opponent bet here that he’d call a check raise from me? I think that might significantly narrow his range down to just hands with sevens in them and because that makes up a much smaller part of his range, it’s not going to happen too often.

Second, what are you going to do if you fire the river and your opponent raises? That would be a really terrible spot, in my opinion. Anything that you beat your opponent wouldn’t be raising you with, unless he is an advanced player and can successfully take a shot at raising you off a seven by turning his hand into a bluff. That said, you save money those times your opponent has you beat. I’d much rather check to induce a bluff and then call as opposed to betting and being raised this early in the tournament. It’s always important to plan ahead for a possible raise you may face and in this case, I would hate to be raised. And like you mentioned, a check raise from yourself serves little purpose because he’s not calling with a ton of hands that you beat.

76s Hand:

“A few hands later in the hi-jack I saw two weak players limp ahead of me before raising to 350 with my favourite hand (disregarding the suits - diamonds one time!) 6c 7c. The blinds both passed as did the limpers and right there I decide to try and use this play regularly when in position against a few of the players that oozed weakness.”

Not sure I’d be raising this to isolate from the hijack seat. I would almost certainly do so on the button and also mix in a raise once in a while from the cutoff . In the hijack though I might be more inclinced to limp behind and wouldn’t mind inviting some other limpers in on the hand. This hand will play fine in a multiway pot with deeper stacks.

Another reason I wouldn’t attack hard here is because there aren’t any antes in play yet and the blinds are still in the first level. That said, you’re risking more with a raise to win less in these earlier stages. A Negreanu-style approach to this hand preflop might be the better option, but your play isn’t something I can say I’ve never done or wouldn’t do. Also, if you know that the players still to act behind you in the cutoff and on the button are fairly tight and won’t limp preflop, you should be able to limp this most of the time and still have position on the hand.

On the other side of the coin, the blinds although being in the first level are still 50-100 as opposed to most starting levels of 25-25 or 25-50, so the raise will pick up a few hundred chips most of the time and others I’m sure you’ll be able to easily win the pot using position against weak/passive opponents post flop.

A2o Hand:

“Bancroft limped under the gun as did some others as it was folded round to me in the small blind and I completed for 75 more holding As 2d and followed it by leading out for 600 on a flop of 2s 5s 2h. With the action on Bancroft he made it 1,500 to go which put me to a decision once everyone passed. I thought that calling here would really leave me out in the dark, because if a spade falls on the turn I can’t really fold to bet due my re-draw nut-flush draw and book draw, so consequently (after considering some of his previous play) made it 4,200 to go. He mulled over it for a little before folding and I decided not to table my hand to the disappointment of the remaining players on the table as I stacked up to 15,075 as we jumped to the 100-200 level.”

The lead again here is pretty standard, but I think there’s a couple points to point out where I’d argue for checking this flop. First of all, you led last time you flopped trips out of the small blind. Why not mix up the play a little bit here and check it, especially with a seemingly aggressive player in Bancroft now at your table? The flop last time contained more straight draws that I believe this flop would have. Also, you recently saw Bancroft raise with a flush draw so there’s no reason to believe he won’t use his big stack and bet a flush draw if this is checked to him. Knowing that, I don’t think a free card will be given here so a check is safer. You also remembered that you have the As which can count for a redraw if you decide to slow play your hand on the flop.

As played, I do like the reraise you put in after Bancroft raised you. With his aggressive nature, he’d be apt to make this play with flush draws and some smaller pairs where he feels he has the best hand. He could also just be putting you on a naked five and hoping to muscle you around with A5, 85, 75, or 65.

Knowing that his range for raising your bet could be pretty wide would more want me to cold call. Yes, if he has a flush draw you’re giving him a free chance to hit it, but other than the eight spades that could come off, you’re likely way ahead of his range.

KK Hand:

“Dealt Kh Kd in early position I opened to 550 and was called by Bancroft and a short-stack in the big blind. The flop fell down 8c Jc 3h and the big blind moved all-in for his last 1,700 putting the action on me before I just made the call. Now this can be seen as bad play just flatting the all-in with someone else to act, but there isn’t a whole lot I’m scared of, and it kind of works as a trap if Bancroft wants to get tricky with one of his many possible holdings. Bancroft now sat with 20,000-plus following a nice double with bottom set and put in a raise to 4,500 immediately putting me to a decision for my tournament life. Tournament life you may say? Well yes, because it is terrible to just call here so my decision is either to fold or to raise all-in. Now after my 1,700 call I have 12,950 behind so folding leaves me with an above average stack, moving all-in will see my double to three-times average or send me to the rail. Considering what to do I played out all the hands that Bancroft may have and how he would have played them - a set is likely, and he is even capable of playing Aces, Kings or Queens in the same way, but I felt that he was more likely to be holding something marginal such as a straight-draw or flush-draw or maybe top-top with Ace-Jack or King-Jack. Eventually made the decision to move all-in hoping that I could sweat out a draw, get lucky or stay ahead in a tournament where 100,000 chips would see you cash and a further 500,000 to make the final table.”

The small blind that shoved all in could have sucha wide range of hands he attempting a stop-n-go play that I’m not too worried about his holding. With 2,075 in the pot and his all-in bet of 1,700, there’s a side pot of 375 between you and Bancroft.

The first thing that pops into my mind when you flat is that you’re letting Bancroft in with so many hands: Flush draws, straight draws, and many one pair hands like Jx and 8x. All those hands could be in his range to call here with the increased odds he’s not getting to take one off because the two of you are so deep. You gave some background information about him raising with some draws, but I’m sure he’d be raising most of those hands with an all-in player. I think he raising range would be much narrower given the all-in player and also because of you flatting.

I guess I’d like to find what your raising range would be here and just what type of hands you’d be flatting with. Would you flat here with AK, AQ, KQ for just two overcards? Would you flat if those hands were clubs giving you two overs and a flush draw? Would you flat with a set? Would you flat with a combo draw like QTcc or T9cc? I ask because I think it’s important to understand what you’re capable of with your own range of hands to correctly be able to analyze Bancroft’s raise.

If you’re calling here to trap, it’s fine, but then you should probably reraise Bancroft and get it in if that’s the case. If he happens to wake up with aces, two pair, a set, or some sort of big combo draw and you lose, so be it if you played your hand to trap Bancroft. I feel like that’s the way you played your hand because you said you’re not scared of much and your hand will serve as a trap if Bancroft wants to get tricky.

I disagree that you’re playing for your tournament life simply because you’re still pretty deep on the flop. After the action and your calling of the flop shove by the short stack, you still have over 12,000 in your stack (12,950 to be exact). It would cost you an extra 2,800 to call the raise from Bancroft, leaving you with 10,150 at the 100-200-25 level. That gives you an M of roughly 19 and a stack of over 50 BBs. With those numbers, I think it’s plenty safe to call the flop bet and reevaluate on the turn. If you call the flop and then check the turn trying to get to a showdown, Bancroft might give up or he’ll fire again. If he fires again, you’re most certainly going to be behind here as someone that seems like the solid player he is will check behind with most hands that don’t beat kings. He’d most likely even check behind and unimproved AA if he had happened to flat with that preflop.

What else does he play this way? JJ, 88, 33, J8, AA, T9cc, Q9cc+ seem to be the only hands that he’d want to raise here thinking he held the best hand. You’re behind all of those holdings minus the combo draws, but even those you’re not a massive favorite. You also fail to fold the Kc in your hand. I think you either call this raise hoping to get to a cheap showdown or fold. If you put him on a draw, I don’t think there’s too much harm is flatting his raise to see a safe card on the turn and then getting it in.

You’re too deep here to get it in on the flop holding only one pair. And I doubt he calls off with anything worse. He’s already folded after raising weak to you once before so you’re somewhat turning your hand into a bluff to make it look like JJ or 88. You said he’s solid so I’m sure he’d pick up on this and not call of light.

You bring up the point of stack sizes needed to cash and make the final table. I’m sure it really matters. This isn’t a satellite so you’re not trying to maintain an average stack to win the prize. You’re trying to win the tournament here, not just just, and not just make the final table. That said, sometimes survival is better than trying to double your stack. What’s more important: the chips you gain or the chips you save?

Just by doubling up here you’re not going to double your equity in the tournament. You may increase your equity, but it won’t double. Each chip you win is worth less than the chip won before it. You’re not going to need 100,000 to reach the money, you could do it with 1,000 or 1,000,000. The same applies for the final table.